Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
